South African Journal of International Affairs

African agency in an era of Sino-American competition: Navigating economic and security intersections

Over the past decade, the global order has undergone significant transformation, affecting the African continent in various ways. One key driver of this transformation is the competition between China and the United States. It directly affects African states, which often have close bilateral ties with both countries. Systemically, China and the US hold different visions of domestic politics and the international order; on a strategic level, they compete for political influence and access to resources. Since the start of US President Donald Trump's second term, US interaction with the African continent has taken on a distinctly transactional character. It is marked by a shift away from development assistance toward dealmaking with a particular focus on increasing US gains from investments and signing new trade agreements that place ‘America First’. Meanwhile, China focuses on technological self-reliance and consolidation ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, shaping its engagement with the African continent in formats such as the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). 

The US–China competition unfolds not only along the traditional security dimension emphasised in classical theories of polarity, but increasingly through economic instruments. At the heart of the competition are struggles for leadership in technology and trade, securing critical minerals and other valuable resources, access to energy, and the formation of new security partnerships.  As such, concepts such as economic statecraft, geoeconomics, the weaponisation of interdependence, competitive coexistence and hybrid warfare show how trade and technology have become integral instruments of great power competition alongside – and often entangled with – military and security cooperation. Yet how, and to what extent, the economic and the security dimensions intersect, and whether their interconnection varies across regions and countries, remains to be investigated, particularly in the African context. 

The pace at which these developments are unfolding poses enormous challenges for African actors. Many African states are insufficiently prepared because of their relatively marginalised global position. Moreover, several African countries are still recovering from the social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and now face cuts in US development assistance which many states have relied upon to finance initiatives in areas such as health care, education and food security. Simultaneously, the political and economic consequences of the Russia–Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East are having a significant impact on African states. Further compounding the tumultuous geopolitical environment is the push (especially from the Global South) to reform multilateral institutions and the erosion of the dominance of the American-European-led global neoliberal order, which is putting additional pressure on African states to not only navigate competing global interests but also actively shape, contest, and at times redefine the terms of their international engagements.

While scholarship on African agency exists, there is need to better understand how African actors (at the continental, regional, and state level) are exercising agency within the unfolding picture of intensifying Sino-American economic and security competition in this period, and to what extent they are gaining benefit from their initiatives. This special issue seeks to address this gap.

As many African states seek strategies to navigate challenges and capitalise on opportunities arising from Sino-American competition, this special issue asks: which strategies do African actors employ to navigate Sino-American competition, under what conditions are these strategies successful, and what are the consequences?

We are particularly looking for empirical contributions – case studies or comparative analyses – that address the following questions:

• How does the competition between China and the US manifest itself in different countries and regions across the African continent? Which sectors (such as raw materials, energy, digital and security provision) are the main focus of this competition?
• How do African states and/or regional/continental organisations actively shape their position in a shifting global order under systemic Sino-American competition? Which analytical concepts (strategic hedging, multi-alignment, strategic autonomy or others) best capture these strategies in practice, and why?
• As trade and tariff policy increasingly function as instruments of competition between China and the United States, how do African states interpret and respond to this economic dimension of the competition, and what strategies do they employ to safeguard their development and economic interests? 
• How are African states/regional/continental organisations responding to the competition between the US and China for critical minerals, energy, telecommunications and digital technologies? To what degree are they successfully implementing new instruments ranging from trade restrictions to free-market strategies in these sectors? 
• How do African states respond to competing security partnerships and security offers from China and the United States, including by the Chinese and US non-state and commercial actors, particularly against the backdrop of alarming security situations in many parts of the continent (eg, the civil war in Sudan; military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger; conflict in Eastern DRC)? Under what conditions do African states engage with, diversify or reject these security partnerships?

We particularly welcome articles that focus on trade, security, and access to critical minerals, energy-related matters, and telecommunications and digital technologies, or that consider how the Sino-American competition intersects across two or more of these sectors within a specific case.